Chad’s Political Unrest Spells Trouble for France and the Sahel Countries

Welcome back to the Vault.

This week, we are looking at the political unrest in Chad and what it could mean for other countries in the Sahel, as well as international partners like France. We also examine potential reasons for the ECOWAS U-turn on Niger and highlight a few other issues we think you should know about.

Feel free to share your thoughts with us, check out our website for the latest policies, and let us know if you need any insight on public policies, regulations, and guidelines in Africa.

Chad’s Political Unrest Spells Trouble for France and the Sahel Countries

Miguel Medina/Agence France-Presse – Getty Images (Uploaded by The New York Times)

General Mahamat Idris Deby took power close to three years ago, following the death of his father, a long-term President, who died in a battle with rebel forces. Mahamat’s ascent to power was marked by controversy and crisis, which remain the case until today.

Despite several constitutional reforms, and a referendum allowing for local representation in government, a crisis persists over the new constitution as the opposition demands for greater decentralization of government powers.

  • Tensions escalated last week when the main opposition candidate, Yaya Dillo, was fatally shot during a clash with security forces. This incident triggered violent confrontations between Mahamat’s supporters and opposition factions.
  • The killing is particularly alarming as Dillo was seen as the most prominent opponent of the President in May’s elections. Rebel groups, such as the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), have labelled the incident an assassination.

Given France’s transition to persona non grata across West Africa, particularly with new military regimes in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, their relationship with Chad has become a much higher priority.

  • Despite this, it’s still unclear how much of a role France would be willing to play if violence and instability escalate further.
  • Chad hosts the second largest contingent of French troops on the continent, with thousands of troops and several key air bases.

But France won’t be the only country watching the situation as it develops. Chad serves as the headquarters of the Sahel’s regional counter-terrorism task force, making stability crucial in the lead-up to the elections. The conflict in Chad could exacerbate the refugee crisis in the region, already worsened by the Sudan crisis, a situation that extremist groups could try to use to their benefit.

Niger Sanctions: Why President Tinubu and ECOWAS made a U-turn

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) recently announced the lifting of sanctions imposed on Niger since July 2023. This marks the end of a seven-month period during which all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS member states and Niger were suspended. The sanctions included the closure of land and air borders, freezing of assets in member states and a halt to the supply of electricity by Nigeria to Niger.

The shock decision came a month after the country and its two junta-led neighbors – Mali and Burkina Faso – announced their withdrawal from the West African bloc. The group also created a mutual defense pact ‘Alliance of Sahel States’ to counter enemies amid threatened military intervention by ECOWAS, which never materialized.

Why remove sanctions now?

ECOWAS says it lifted the sanctions on purely humanitarian grounds i.e. to ease suffering but other underlying factors (mentioned below) may have influenced the decision.

  • Ineffective Sanctions – the sanctions did not lead to the release of the ousted President Bazoum, who remains in detention under the Junta government. The coup leaders have also not exhibited any willingness to relinquish power and restore democracy within a short timeframe as requested by ECOWAS. Instead, Niger’s decision to ignore the sanctions and establish relations with other junta-led governments in the region has undermined ECOWAS, prompting a reconsideration of their initial approach.
  • Limited domestic support – Nigeria’s president, who leads ECOWAS, has faced challenges in garnering the requisite political and public support for military intervention in Niger. Nigeria is exercising caution to avert a conflict with Niger, considering their shared border, especially in Northern Nigeria, where insurgent groups have already displaced many from their homes. This caution is further heightened by the longstanding relationships between the two countries, characterized by close family ties among people in Northern Nigeria and Niger.
  • Airspace Dominion – The initial closure of Niger’s airspace by its military government (in response to the ECOWAS sanctions and feared military invasion) is said to have adversely affected the operations and revenue of airlines operating within the region but while the junta recently lifted the ban on its airspace, it maintained the restrictions against Nigeria by banning flights to or from Nigeria.  The implication is that passengers flying to and from Nigeria will suffer longer flight times and would be very likely to pay more to cover the associated cost.
  • Exports Challenges – Nigerian manufacturers / exporters that conduct business in Niger Republic or use Niger as a transit route to other ECOWAS countries were prevented from doing business as usual. Truckloads of goods were stuck at the borders due to the closure. Exporters were forced to suffer the associated cost of truck hire, fees for security personnel, etc. – in addition to the already high cost of doing business in Nigeria. Non-recognition of trade agreements (e.g. the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme) by the junta also threatened the incentives of exporting from Nigeria to Niger.
  • Security Disruption – the standoff with Niger has disrupted cooperation and shared intelligence in the fight against insurgent groups in the Sahel region. This includes the Lake Chad Basin pact, which is essential for combating terrorism in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. The pact also provides critical joint efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad Basin.

In short, removal of the sanctions indicates a change in ECOWAS posture, shifting to a more diplomatic stance and a willingness to dialogue after months of stalemate with the junta-led governments across the region.

Data Vault: South Africa 2024/25 Budget in a Brief

The South African budget deficit is anticipated to rise from 4% in 2023/24 to 4.9% of GDP in 2024/25. Essential points from the recently disclosed budget are as follows:

  • Debt service is expected to account for approximately 20% of the budget, reaching 21% of GDP in 2026/27, with projections indicating an increase to 5.23% of GDP by 2026/27.
  • Social spending constitutes the lion share, making up 24% of the total outlay. Some analysts argue that this reflects an attempt to cater to voters with the general elections coming up in May 2024.
  • Power cuts have significantly impacted transportation and production, resulting in a decrease in Real GDP growth to 0.6% in 2023. However, there is a projection for growth to reach 1.3% in 2024.
  • The government plans to boost its coffers by increasing taxes, aiming to collect a R15 billion in the fiscal year 2024/25.

What policy and insight do you seek?

Whether you are a government official, civil society organization, or researcher, our repository provides comprehensive access to public policies, regulations, and guidelines across Africa. We provide insights and intelligence on these regional policies and regulations for research, advocacy, policymaking, and investing.

Get in touch with us here: <mailto:team@policyvault.africa>.

What we are tracking

We’re also tracking the latest current events in the news, and how they may affect the decisions of policymakers. Below are some of the latest developments.

Zambia| Authorities declare national emergency over drought

Last Thursday, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema declared the drought being experienced as a national disaster and emergency, emphasizing its devastating effects on food production and power generation. The Southern African country is grappling with the aftermath of a cholera epidemic and facing challenging weather conditions, which are partly caused by climate change.

Nigeria | Central Bank withdraws licenses of 4,173 Bureau De Change (BDC) operators

Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced that it has revoked the operating licenses of over 4000 Bureau De Change (BDC) operators due to their failure to observe regulatory provisions. These include non-payment of necessary fees, failure to meet reporting requirements outlined in the guidelines, and non-compliance with regulations such as Anti-Money Laundering, Countering the Financing of Terrorism, and Counter-Proliferation Financing regulations.

Want more?

Visit www.policyvault.africato check some of our recently published insights, which provide you with deeper analysis and context of matters at the intersection of public policy and current events.